Looking at the news and social media over the past few weeks, it would seem like the ground beneath the Philippines hasn’t stopped trembling. Earthquake after earthquake fills headlines recently, and you can’t blame people for thinking that it’s becoming worse.
We all know that the Philippines lies within the Pacific Ring of Fire – meaning earthquakes are to be expected. But are all of these earthquakes in such a short time really normal?
I have to admit it made me a little bit anxious, so I did a little digging online.
The Quakes that Seem to Have Started it All
Reports from legitimate sources like the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) have been crucial in providing a little bit of clarity.
First of all, the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck Bogo City in Cebu is the strongest earthquake ever recorded in that area. Latest reports from the NDRRMC show the death toll from that quake is now at 76, with 559 injuries and 748,025 individuals affected. I feel that this was the one that started it, as the damage of the quake went viral on social media – especially that one video that showed the facade of the Archdiocesan Shrine of Santa Rosa de Lima shaking and crumbling.
Then, just eleven days later, Mindanao was hit by back-to-back earthquakes at magnitude 7.4 and 6.8 – classified by PHIVOLCS as a “doublet” earthquake, or two distinct earthquakes occurring in nearly the same area.
And then it all seemed to continue – first an earthquake in La Union, and then an earthquake in Surigao del Norte. All in the span of a few weeks. What is going on?
The Science Behind the Shakes
If you dig a little further, the crazy thing is, experts at PHIVOLCS say that these earthquakes are normal.
PHIVOLCS director Teresito Bacolcol in an interview said that the earthquakes were “independent occurrences with different geological origins”. These are not part of one “single, massive event”, but instead a direct consequence of the Philippines’ location within the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Another report reiterates this, and urges caution on information we consume and share on social media. According to PHIVOLCS senior science research specialist Johnlery Deximo, the Philippines is traversed by over 180 active fault segments, and has six active trenches. All of these are capable of generating earthquakes.
He goes on to say that the Philippines is “seismically active”, so earthquakes are to be expected.
What’s even crazier is that ever since the Cebu quake last September 30, PHIVOLCS has recorded 12,079 aftershocks; the Davao doublet quakes so far has generated 1,303 aftershocks. The official advice of PHIVOLCS? Stay calm, but be ready.
The “Big One” May or May Not Happen Soon, Give or Take 200 Years
And you can’t really talk about earthquakes in the Philippines without mentioning the “Big One.”
This is the predicted 7.2 magnitude earthquake brought about by movement of the West Valley Fault, that is expected to bring about catastrophic damage to Metro Manila. This specific fault traverses Quezon City, Marikina, Pasig, Makati, Taguig, and Muntinlupa, and also the provinces of Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite, and Laguna.
In another recent news interview, PHIVOLCS Director Bacolcol shared the prediction of when exactly the “Big One” could happen. It’s funny, because the experts’ prediction doesn’t really help that much. Here’s what the article says:
“The West Valley Fault’s last major movement was recorded in 1658. Based on the lower boundary of its 400 to 600 years of recurrence interval, Bacolcol said its next movement may possibly happen earlier or later than 2058.
It could also happen 600 years past 1658, which will be around the year 2258.
“That means that as we get closer to 2058, the probability of this 7.2 recurring is tumataas,” he said.
“Of course, may uncertainty yan, give or take several decades. It could happen earlier, that’s the reason why we’re saying that we’re right for the big one,” he added.”
Translation: maybe it’s gonna happen in 2058, or 2258, give or take several decades. It can happen earlier, or later. In short, we have an idea, but no one really knows.
What’s good about this interview though is that Bacolcol says that “everything is normal” despite all these recent earthquakes. He goes on to explain that on average, the Philippines experiences 30 earthquakes a day, but most of these are only recorded by instruments and not felt by humans.
Normal, Yes, but it Doesn’t Hurt to Be Prepared
So, experts seem to be unbothered, but still rightly caution everyone to be prepared.
Here’s a good article that summarizes what to do before and during earthquakes. Here’s another one for good measure.
It’s good to brush up on these things, like the “drop, cover, and hold”, and proactively preparing a “Go Bag” and learning evacuation routes even in our own homes.
Although these earthquakes are normal and part of living in the Philippines, it doesn’t hurt to be prepared no matter what happens. It’s for our peace of mind as well.